Indonesia plans to execute B40 in January
Because case, prices might rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says
B40 will require extra 3 mln heaps feedstock, GAPKI states
Malaysia palm oil standard at greatest since mid-2022
India may withdraw import tax hike amidst inflation, Mistry says
(Adds expert comments, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard rate)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is anticipated to recuperate in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, but rates are anticipated to remain raised due to scheduled expansion of the nation's biodiesel required, market experts stated.
The palm oil standard price in Malaysia has actually increased more than 35% this year, raised by sluggish output and Indonesia's strategy to increase the necessary domestic biodiesel mix to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to minimize fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in leading manufacturer Indonesia is expected to recover by 1.5 million metric loads compared to an approximated drop of just over a million loads this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, told the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research firm Oil World, stated he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million heaps next year after a 2.5 million heap drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is anticipated to improve, supply from elsewhere and of other veggie oils is seen tightening up.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is expected to dip somewhat next year after increasing by an estimated 1 million lots in 2024.
"We would require a recovery in palm in 2025 since combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke said.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The cost surge in palm oil in the previous seven weeks has actually been "frightening" for buyers, Mielke stated, adding that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia imposes the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association stated additional feedstock of around 3 million loads will be needed for B40 execution, eroding export supply.
The present palm oil premium has currently triggered palm to lose market share against other oils, Mielke included.
Malaysian palm oil prices are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric lot in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest considering that mid-2022.
"Sentiment right now is red-hot and extremely bullish, we have to be cautious," stated Dorab Mistry, director at Indian durable goods company Godrej .
He anticipated the Malaysian price around 5,000 ringgit and above until June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry urged Indonesia to
think about delaying
B40 execution on issue about its effect on food consumers.
Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated top palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import responsibility hike
imposed from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, but Biodiesel
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